Análisis costo-efectividad de la introducción del gas natural en el sector transporte e industria como combustible de transición en Costa Rica
Fecha
2025-02-26
Autores
Bolaños Herrera, Ivannia
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Centro Internacional de Política Económica para el Desarrollo Sostenible
Resumen
El cambio climático y la urgente necesidad de descarbonizar las economías han puesto a la transición energética como una prioridad global. Costa Rica, aunque líder en generación eléctrica renovable, enfrenta importantes retos en sectores como transporte e industria, que continúan siendo grandes emisores de GEI. En este contexto, el gas natural se presenta como una alternativa estratégica para diversificar la matriz energética y reducir las emisiones de forma inmediata, mientras se desarrollan tecnologías más sostenibles.
Este estudio realiza un análisis costo-efectividad para evaluar la viabilidad de introducir el gas natural como combustible de transición en Costa Rica. Se abordan aspectos económicos y ambientales, y se emplean metodologías avanzadas como el Análisis de Múltiples Criterios (AMC), el Análisis Costo-Efectividad (ACE) y estudios de casos internacionales. Los resultados destacan que, pese a que las emisiones de GEI se reducen significativamente al sustituir combustibles como el diésel, el búnker y el GLP por Gas Natural Licuado, en materia de costos y precios este no es lo suficientemente competitivo. Además, se destaca que en la actualidad existen barreras que impiden que el gas natural sea un combustible de transición en el corto plazo.
La investigación concluye que, bajo las condiciones actuales, no es viable que el gas natural sea una fuente de transición energética, esto se valida a través de lo observado en la experiencia internacional, en la discusión con actores dentro de la política energética del país y finalmente, en el análisis costo-efectividad. Al finalizar la investigación se brindan recomendaciones de políticas energéticas orientadas a potenciar la inversión y el estudio de fuentes renovables de energía que apoyen una transición basada principalmente en electricidad, pero a partir de fuentes renovables; además de aprovechar la infraestructura del GLP. Este documento pretende ser una herramienta clave para los tomadores de decisiones, aportando información sólida para diseñar un futuro energético más sostenible y resiliente en Costa Rica.
Climate change and the urgent need to decarbonize economies have made the energy transition a global priority. Costa Rica, despite being a leader in renewable electricity generation, faces significant challenges in sectors such as transportation and industry, which remain major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters. In this context, natural gas emerges as a strategic alternative to diversify the energy matrix and immediately reduce emissions while more sustainable technologies are developed. This study conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the feasibility of introducing natural gas as a transitional fuel in Costa Rica. It addresses economic and environmental aspects and employs advanced methodologies such as the Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC), the Average Cost-Effectiveness (ACE), and international case studies. The results highlight that while GHG emissions are significantly reduced by replacing fuels such as diesel, bunker, and LPG with LNG, in terms of costs and prices, it is not sufficiently competitive. Furthermore, the study underscores that numerous barriers currently prevent natural gas from being a viable transitional fuel in the short term. The research concludes with energy policy recommendations aimed at promoting investment and the exploration of renewable energy sources that support a transition primarily based on electricity derived from renewables. This document seeks to serve as a key tool for decision-makers, providing robust information to design a more sustainable and resilient energy future for Costa Rica.
Climate change and the urgent need to decarbonize economies have made the energy transition a global priority. Costa Rica, despite being a leader in renewable electricity generation, faces significant challenges in sectors such as transportation and industry, which remain major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters. In this context, natural gas emerges as a strategic alternative to diversify the energy matrix and immediately reduce emissions while more sustainable technologies are developed. This study conducts a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the feasibility of introducing natural gas as a transitional fuel in Costa Rica. It addresses economic and environmental aspects and employs advanced methodologies such as the Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC), the Average Cost-Effectiveness (ACE), and international case studies. The results highlight that while GHG emissions are significantly reduced by replacing fuels such as diesel, bunker, and LPG with LNG, in terms of costs and prices, it is not sufficiently competitive. Furthermore, the study underscores that numerous barriers currently prevent natural gas from being a viable transitional fuel in the short term. The research concludes with energy policy recommendations aimed at promoting investment and the exploration of renewable energy sources that support a transition primarily based on electricity derived from renewables. This document seeks to serve as a key tool for decision-makers, providing robust information to design a more sustainable and resilient energy future for Costa Rica.
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EFECTIVIDAD ORGANIZACIONAL, DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, GAS NATURAL, RECURSOS ENERGÉTICOS, ORGANIZATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, NATURAL GAS, ENERGY RESOURCES