La existencia de la curva de Kuznets ambiental (CKA) y su impacto sobre las negociaciones internacionales. (SDT 005-2002)
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Fecha
2002-04
Autores
Gitli, Eduardo
Hernández, Greivin
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Editor
Centro Internacional de Política Económica para el Desarrollo Sostenible (CINPE)
Resumen
Según diversos estudios que se han realizado desde la década de los noventas la relación entre el crecimiento económico y el ambiente tiende a ser benéfica a largo plazo. El fundamento de esta posición, es el hallazgo empírico de una relación de U invertida entre el ingreso y las emisiones o concentraciones de diversos contaminantes (CO2, SO2, NOx, smog, etc.), comúnmente llamada curva de Kuznets ambiental (CKA). Este documento realiza un análisis de los argumentos en pro y en contra de la existencia de tal relación virtuosa entre el ingreso y el ambiente, abordando tanto elementos teóricos como la validez empírica de algunos estudios. Se concluye que a) la evidencia sobre la existencia de la CKA es contradictoria, b) los modelos econométricos son altamente sensibles a cambios en su especificación o su información básica, c) a pesar de las dos limitantes anteriores, los ingresos a los que las emisiones empiezan a disminuir están aún lejos del alcance de gran parte de la población del mundo en desarrollo, y d) Dado que no existe evidencia clara de la existencia de la CKA, resulta necesario considerar el papel de la temática ambiental dentro de las negociaciones comerciales, y de esta forma atacar la tendencia creciente de la contaminación en los países del sur. El apoyo decidido de los países del Norte mediante programas de cooperación, pareciera fundamental para lograr el objetivo de un desarrollo sostenible.
According to several studies that have been made from the ninety decade of the relation between the economic growth and the environment tends to be beneficial in the long term. The base of this position, is the empirical finding of a U inverted relation between the entrance and the emissions or concentrations of diverse polluting agents (CO2, SO2, NOx, smog, etc.), commonly called Environmental Curved of Kuznets (ECK). This document analyzed the arguments in favor and against the existence of such virtuous relation between the entrance and the environment, approaching as much theoretical elements as the empirical validity of some studies. This document concludes that: a) the evidence on the existence of the ECK is contradictory, b) the econometric models are highly sensible to changes in its specification or their basic information, c) in spite of the two previous limitations, the income to which the emissions begin to diminish are still far from the great part of the population of the developing world, and d) Since evidence does not exist of the ECK existence, is necessary to consider the importance of the environmental subject within the commercial negotiations, and to attack the increasing tendency of the contamination in the countries of the south. The decided support of the countries of the North by cooperation programs seemed fundamental to obtain the objective of a sustainable development.
According to several studies that have been made from the ninety decade of the relation between the economic growth and the environment tends to be beneficial in the long term. The base of this position, is the empirical finding of a U inverted relation between the entrance and the emissions or concentrations of diverse polluting agents (CO2, SO2, NOx, smog, etc.), commonly called Environmental Curved of Kuznets (ECK). This document analyzed the arguments in favor and against the existence of such virtuous relation between the entrance and the environment, approaching as much theoretical elements as the empirical validity of some studies. This document concludes that: a) the evidence on the existence of the ECK is contradictory, b) the econometric models are highly sensible to changes in its specification or their basic information, c) in spite of the two previous limitations, the income to which the emissions begin to diminish are still far from the great part of the population of the developing world, and d) Since evidence does not exist of the ECK existence, is necessary to consider the importance of the environmental subject within the commercial negotiations, and to attack the increasing tendency of the contamination in the countries of the south. The decided support of the countries of the North by cooperation programs seemed fundamental to obtain the objective of a sustainable development.