Sostenibilidad fiscal en Costa Rica, 1991-2013: una aproximación a través del Método Montecarlo
Fecha
2014-06-30
Autores
Valerio Berrocal, Marco
Espinosa Rodríguez, Julio César
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Editor
Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica
Resumen
El presente documento es una aplicación de un modelo de sostenibilidad fiscal para la economía de Costa Rica. Se utiliza la metodología de límite natural de deuda propuesta por Mendoza y Oviedo (2009) y Simulaciones Montecarlo para calcular la probabilidad de superar este límite. El modelo presentado es una simplificación del aplicado por Tanner y Samake (2007) y Fernández (2005). Pronosticando 3 años se obtiene un 76,09% de probabilidad de superar el límite de deuda definido como crítico, lo que indica que la economía posee un alto riesgo de insostenibilidad de la deuda. Es por ello que basado en funciones de impulso respuesta se concluye el posible resultado de una política fiscal contractiva.
This document is an application of a fiscal sustainability model for the Costa Rican economy. The natural debt limit methodology proposed by Mendoza and Oviedo (2009) and Monte Carlo Simulations are used to calculate the probability of exceeding this limit. The presented model is a simplification of the one applied by Tanner and Samake (2007) and Fernández (2005). Forecasting 3 years, a 76.09% probability of exceeding the debt limit defined as critical is obtained, which indicates that the economy has a high risk of debt unsustainability. That is why, based on impulse response functions, the possible result of a contractive fiscal policy is concluded.
This document is an application of a fiscal sustainability model for the Costa Rican economy. The natural debt limit methodology proposed by Mendoza and Oviedo (2009) and Monte Carlo Simulations are used to calculate the probability of exceeding this limit. The presented model is a simplification of the one applied by Tanner and Samake (2007) and Fernández (2005). Forecasting 3 years, a 76.09% probability of exceeding the debt limit defined as critical is obtained, which indicates that the economy has a high risk of debt unsustainability. That is why, based on impulse response functions, the possible result of a contractive fiscal policy is concluded.
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Palabras clave
COSTA RICA, DESARROLLO ECONÓMICO, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, INFLACIÓN, INFLATION